By Horizonte Cubano News
Washington has spent decades telling Cuba what must change.
More political freedom.
More economic freedom.
More respect for human rights.
More private enterprise.
Less government control.
Less military involvement in the economy.
These demands are not difficult to understand.
But there is another question that receives far less attention:
If Cuba begins to change, what exactly is the United States offering the Cuban people?
Not the Cuban government.
Not the Communist Party.
Not GAESA.
The Cuban people.
Because ultimately, governments do not build economies.
People do.
The Cuban People Are the Economy
A government can issue decrees.
It can regulate businesses.
It can collect taxes.
It can control banks.
It can impose restrictions.
But a government does not wake up at five in the morning to work a farm.
It does not repair a refrigerator.
It does not drive a taxi.
It does not prepare food in a restaurant.
It does not repair a railway.
It does not build a house.
It does not operate a small factory.
It does not raise a family.
People do those things.
And if Cuba is ever going to build a functioning economy, it will ultimately be ordinary Cubans who build it.
That is why American policy should not only explain what Washington wants the Cuban government to stop doing.
It should explain what Washington is prepared to help the Cuban people start doing.
Washington Does Offer Something
Fairness requires acknowledging an important fact.
The United States has already created some mechanisms intended to support independent Cuban entrepreneurs.
American regulations recognize independent private-sector entrepreneurs in Cuba.
Certain authorized transactions can occur with them.
Some qualifying Cuban entrepreneurs can access U.S. banking services for authorized transactions.
Certain goods and services produced by independent Cuban entrepreneurs can enter the United States under existing rules.
And American policy explicitly distinguishes between independent Cuban businesses and prohibited government or Communist Party officials.
These are meaningful distinctions.
They demonstrate that Washington already understands something important:
The Cuban government and the Cuban people are not the same thing.
But these mechanisms raise another question.
Are they enough?
Where Is the Larger Economic Vision?
Imagine that tomorrow Cuba dramatically expands private enterprise.
Imagine that thousands of Cubans are permitted to create genuinely independent businesses.
Imagine farmers receive greater economic freedom.
Imagine entrepreneurs can import and export.
Imagine private transportation companies expand.
Imagine independent construction companies begin rebuilding deteriorated housing.
Imagine private businesses begin participating in energy, logistics, telecommunications, manufacturing and services.
What would Washington do?
Would American banks finance legitimate Cuban private businesses?
Would American companies be encouraged to sell equipment to them?
Would Cuban entrepreneurs be able to establish commercial relationships with American suppliers?
Could farmers obtain machinery?
Could transportation companies purchase vehicles and parts?
Could electricians and contractors obtain modern equipment?
Could private businesses purchase generators, solar equipment or other energy technology?
Could Cuban entrepreneurs receive training in accounting, compliance, logistics and international trade?
Could Cuban businesses eventually sell more products legally in the American market?
These are practical questions.
And practical questions require practical answers.
A Policy of Pressure Needs an Exit
Sanctions can create pressure.
But pressure alone is not a destination.
If Washington tells Cuba:
Change your economic model.
Expand private enterprise.
Reduce military control.
Respect individual economic freedom.
Then Washington should also be prepared to say:
And if you do those things, here is what becomes possible.
That second sentence is essential.
Without it, sanctions risk becoming permanent punishment rather than leverage.
Leverage requires an exchange.
One side does something.
The other side responds.
Then another step becomes possible.
That is how negotiations move.
The Cuban Government Cannot Be Excused
None of this absolves Havana.
The Cuban government bears enormous responsibility for the economic system it created and maintained.
For decades, excessive centralization, restrictions on private enterprise, distorted incentives, weak productivity and government control have damaged Cuba’s ability to produce what its population needs.
Cuba cannot blame every economic failure on Washington.
Havana must allow Cubans to produce.
To invest.
To own.
To hire.
To import.
To export.
To accumulate legitimate wealth.
To enter contracts.
And ultimately, to build businesses without needing political permission for every stage of economic life.
If Havana refuses to permit that transformation, responsibility belongs in Havana.
But if Havana begins permitting it, Washington should be ready.
Do Not Replace Government Dependency With American Dependency
There is another principle that should guide American policy.
The objective should not be to make Cubans economically dependent on the United States.
The objective should be to help create conditions in which Cubans can become economically independent.
That distinction matters.
Cuba does not need another permanent benefactor.
It needs functioning businesses.
It needs productive farms.
It needs transportation.
It needs electricity.
It needs housing.
It needs telecommunications.
It needs modern logistics.
It needs capital.
And above all, it needs Cuban citizens capable of creating wealth through their own work.
American policy should facilitate that independence where U.S. law and national interests permit it.
Give the Cuban Family a Stake in Change
This is where political strategy and economic reality meet.
Governments survive partly because societies continue functioning underneath them.
Workers continue working.
Families continue surviving.
Farmers continue producing.
Businesses continue operating.
The Cuban people sustain Cuban society every day, regardless of what political system governs them.
Any serious strategy for change therefore has to speak directly to those people.
A Cuban family should be able to ask Washington:
If our country changes, what changes for us?
Can we build a business?
Can we trade?
Can we obtain financing?
Can we purchase American equipment?
Can we sell something to an American customer?
Can our children build prosperous lives without leaving Cuba?
Those questions may ultimately matter more to ordinary Cubans than another political speech in Washington or Havana.
Imagine a Cuban Economic Opportunity Framework
Washington could begin developing something far more ambitious.
Call it a Cuban Economic Opportunity Framework.
It would not give money to the Cuban government.
It would not finance GAESA.
It would not eliminate sanctions against officials accused of repression.
Instead, it could establish clearly defined opportunities that become available when measurable conditions are satisfied.
Independent Cuban farmers could gain greater access to American agricultural equipment.
Verified private transportation businesses could gain access to vehicles and parts.
Independent energy businesses could purchase authorized equipment and fuel.
Private construction companies could obtain tools and materials.
Entrepreneurs could receive legitimate financing where legally permissible.
American and Cuban private businesses could develop transparent commercial relationships.
Training could be expanded in accounting, compliance, technology and business management.
Every transaction could require beneficial-ownership verification.
Every participating company could be screened to ensure that sanctioned or military-controlled entities are not the true beneficiaries.
This would not be charity.
It would be economic policy.
Washington Should Speak to the Cuban People, Not Only About Them
American officials frequently say that the United States stands with the Cuban people.
That statement should have an economic meaning.
Tell Cuban farmers what opportunities could become available.
Tell Cuban entrepreneurs what requirements they must satisfy.
Tell Cuban families what greater economic freedom could mean.
Tell American companies what legitimate Cuban commerce Washington is prepared to permit.
And tell Havana exactly what changes would unlock additional opportunities.
Then everyone understands the proposition.
Havana Has a Choice. Washington Does Too.
Havana must decide whether it truly wants an independent private sector.
Because a genuinely independent business community eventually creates citizens who are less dependent on government.
Washington must decide whether it genuinely wants that private sector to succeed.
Because supporting independent Cuban enterprise means accepting something important:
Economic change may come gradually.
It may begin with a farmer.
A restaurant.
A transportation company.
A mechanic.
A contractor.
A small manufacturer.
A technology entrepreneur.
Change does not always begin inside a presidential palace.
Sometimes it begins inside a workshop.
The Question Remains
Washington wants Cuba to change.
Fine.
Then Washington should define the bargain.
Tell Havana what it must do.
Tell the Cuban people what opportunities will become available when those changes occur.
Maintain targeted sanctions where justified.
Protect American national-security interests.
Demand transparency.
Exclude sanctioned and military-controlled entities.
But create a visible path for ordinary Cubans.
Because ultimately, the future of Cuba will not be built in Washington.
And it will not be built inside the offices of the Cuban government.
It will be built by Cubans.
If the United States truly wants change in Cuba, its policy should give those Cubans something more powerful than another promise of political change.
It should give them a credible economic reason to believe that change can improve their lives.
Horizonte Cubano News — Analysis and commentary on Cuba, the United States, and the future of the hemisphere.