By Pastor Herrera Macurán
Horizonte Cubano News
Calls for military intervention in Cuba are easy to make.
The difficult part begins when we ask who would actually pay for it.
Those advocating an American intervention often speak about liberation, regime change and democracy. These are powerful words. But wars are not fought with words. They are fought in cities, neighborhoods, ports, airports and communities where ordinary people live.
Before anyone asks the United States to send its military into Cuba, there is a question that deserves an answer:
Who pays the price?
The answer is uncomfortable.
The Cuban people would pay first.
Americans could pay next.
And the consequences could remain with both countries for generations.
Cuba Is a Country, Not a Battlefield on a Map
It is easy to look at Cuba on a map and think strategically.
There are airports, ports, military installations, highways, communications facilities, power plants and government buildings.
But surrounding that infrastructure are people.
Havana alone is home to millions of residents. Santiago de Cuba, Matanzas, Santa Clara, Holguín, Camagüey and dozens of other communities contain families who have nothing to do with military planning or geopolitical confrontation.
Military operations intended to destroy government or military capabilities could inevitably create risks for civilians and essential infrastructure.
And Cuba already suffers from serious infrastructure problems.
The electrical system is fragile. Transportation is inadequate. Hospitals struggle with shortages. Food distribution is difficult. Water systems in some communities require substantial investment.
A war would not begin with a healthy country capable of absorbing enormous disruption.
It would begin with a country already under extraordinary economic pressure.
What Happens When the Electricity Goes Out?
Military planners can identify targets.
But military planning cannot eliminate every consequence.
Suppose electrical infrastructure is damaged.
Hospitals need electricity.
Water pumps need electricity.
Food refrigeration needs electricity.
Communications systems need electricity.
Businesses need electricity.
Families need electricity.
Now imagine those problems occurring simultaneously during a military conflict.
Who supplies hospitals?
Who distributes food?
Who maintains drinking water?
Who provides fuel?
Who repairs the electrical grid?
Winning a military confrontation and maintaining a functioning society are two entirely different missions.
Anyone advocating intervention should be prepared to discuss both.
Then Comes Migration
Florida is approximately 90 miles from Cuba.
That geographic reality cannot be ignored.
If Cuba entered a major military conflict, thousands — potentially far more — could attempt to leave.
Some would travel by boat.
Others might attempt dangerous journeys through neighboring countries.
Families in Florida would desperately try to help relatives escape.
The United States Coast Guard and other agencies could face an enormous humanitarian and security challenge in the Florida Straits.
The same politicians demanding military action would then confront another question:
What should America do with Cubans fleeing the war?
Return them to an active conflict?
Admit them temporarily?
Create refugee processing centers?
Ask other Caribbean or Latin American countries to receive them?
These questions should be answered before a conflict begins, not after desperate families appear at sea.
American Families Could Pay Too
There is sometimes an assumption that an intervention in Cuba would be quick and relatively painless because of the overwhelming military superiority of the United States.
Military superiority, however, does not answer the political question of what happens afterward.
American service members could be placed in danger.
American taxpayers could eventually finance humanitarian assistance, stabilization, reconstruction and security.
If an intervention produced prolonged instability, American personnel could remain involved far longer than originally predicted.
The United States has enough experience with military interventions to understand one fundamental lesson:
Entering a country can be easier than determining how and when to leave it.
That lesson should not be forgotten simply because Cuba is geographically close.
Who Rebuilds Cuba?
Assume for a moment that military intervention succeeds rapidly.
Then what?
Cuba would still need electricity.
It would still need railroads.
It would still need ports.
It would still need functioning airports.
It would still need hospitals, schools, telecommunications, roads, water systems and public transportation.
Its economy would need investment.
Its agricultural system would need modernization.
Its industries would need capital.
Its citizens would need jobs.
Who pays?
The United States?
International financial institutions?
Private investors?
Cuban taxpayers?
Cuban Americans?
There is rarely serious discussion about the potential cost of rebuilding Cuba after a military conflict.
Yet reconstruction would become one of the first responsibilities of whoever assumed authority after the fighting stopped.
And Who Governs?
This may be the most important question of all.
Removing a government is not the same thing as creating a legitimate replacement.
Would Cuba immediately hold elections?
Who would organize them?
Who would participate?
Would political organizations based outside Cuba return and compete for power?
What role would people currently living on the island play?
What happens to existing government employees, police officers, teachers, doctors, engineers and administrators?
Would the Cuban armed forces disappear?
Who would maintain public security during the transition?
A political vacuum ninety miles from Florida would not be an American victory.
It could become an American national-security problem.
Cubans Must Not Become Collateral Damage in Someone Else’s Political Dream
There are legitimate criticisms of Cuba’s political system.
There are legitimate demands for economic reform.
There are legitimate concerns about political freedoms and human rights.
Those debates should continue.
But the suffering of the Cuban people cannot become an acceptable price for proving someone’s political theory.
People who have endured shortages, migration, family separation and economic hardship for decades should not casually be asked to endure a war as well.
Especially when peaceful alternatives have not been exhausted.
There Are Other Instruments of Foreign Policy
The choice is not between accepting everything the Cuban government does and invading Cuba.
Diplomacy exists.
Negotiation exists.
Targeted sanctions exist.
Economic engagement exists.
Humanitarian cooperation exists.
Support for private enterprise exists.
Cultural and educational exchanges exist.
Migration agreements exist.
Political dialogue exists.
None guarantees immediate success.
Neither does war.
But peaceful policies have one enormous advantage:
They can be modified when they fail.
The consequences of war cannot be so easily reversed.
Before Calling for an Invasion, Answer the Questions
Anyone demanding American military intervention in Cuba should explain:
How many civilian casualties are acceptable?
How many American casualties are acceptable?
How will hospitals continue operating?
How will food reach Cuban families?
How will a migration crisis be prevented?
Who will maintain public order?
Who will govern Cuba?
Who will rebuild the country?
How much will American taxpayers pay?
And most importantly:
Have the Cuban people themselves been asked whether they are willing to pay this price?
Cuba needs change.
Cuba needs economic opportunity.
Cuba needs political evolution.
Cuba needs institutions capable of serving its people.
But Cubans should not have to watch their country destroyed in order to obtain those things.
Before someone calls for war from the comfort of another country, they should first explain why Cuban families should be the ones expected to bury the dead.
Those who demand an invasion should also be prepared to explain who will pay its price.
Because ultimately, wars are not paid for with political speeches.
They are paid for with human lives.
Pastor Herrera Macurán is the founder of Horizonte Cubano News. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.